2024 Outlook

Your guide to the year ahead in global markets

We are in the first stages of a dramatic regime change - from low inflation and ever declining interest rates to an investment landscape marked by greater economic volatility and the associated higher risk premia for holding assets.

Forecasting 2024 is challenging, with ongoing remarkable changes across economies and markets, combined with a year of political uncertainty ahead.

Against this backdrop, we offer four potential paths the world could take, each assigned with its own probability and asset allocation implications, mindful that good investing needs discipline, an open mind, and a preparedness to react to the facts as they change. In addition, we provide standalone 2024 investment outlooks for Asia and on the outlook for ESG.

Discover where our experts believe the key areas of opportunity and risk lie across global financial markets in 2024.

Read our CIO's overview


Macro scenarios & investment implications

Cyclical recession: Our base case

This would see a moderate contraction followed by a return to growth in late 2024 or early 2025. Inflation would be sticky before returning to target, with interest rates staying higher for longer followed by central banks pivoting.

  • In equities, we would be cautious on European cyclicals, but expect to find opportunities in financial and bond proxies such as consumer staples. 

  • Inflation-linked bonds would be preferred as inflation remains sticky, although nominal bonds would benefit from faster-than expected rate cuts in the latter part of the year. 

  • In many ways, a cyclical recession would be the ‘Goldilocks-zone’ for property investment given that a small amount of inflation is positive for real estate. 

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Alternative macro scenarios:

Key themes for 2024

Outlook 2024

Download our guide to the year ahead for the global economy and major asset classes.

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Fidelity Outlook 2024