The only certainty in investing is uncertainty

It is sometimes said that markets hate uncertainty. This is not strictly true. Uncertainty is a key feature of markets - it creates the tension between buyers and sellers that sets prices. Without uncertainty there is no market. What we can say is that rising uncertainty tends to depress prices and vice versa. Whether you love or hate uncertainty depends, therefore, on whether you are a buyer or a seller.

19 February 2019 | Tom Stevenson
The January effect

The January effect

Investors have latched onto the old adage that a good January in the market means the rest of the year will be profitable too. There are other seasonal sayings about investment - Sell in May, or the belief that September and October are the most dangerous months - but January is I think the only month assumed to have predictive powers.

05 February 2019 | Tom Stevenson
An excellent time to be a stock-picker

An excellent time to be a stock-picker

After ten years in which market movements have tended to be relatively uniform we've seen the return of volatility. Although this feels unsettling it's great news if you are in the business of picking winners and avoiding losers.

14 January 2019 | Tom Stevenson
The seeds of discontent

The seeds of discontent

Forty years ago today, in a hotel in west Beijing, the seeds of today’s US/China trade war were planted.

17 December 2018 | Tom Stevenson
Holding a mirror to 1918:

Holding a mirror to 1918:

Did peace mean prosperity for a world ravaged by The Great War?

12 November 2018 | Tom Stevenson
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