Global economics
Chart of the week | Oil and breakevens
Whilst last year’s favourite word amongst investors was “unprecedented”, this year “reflation” appears to be the word on everyone’s lips. For central bankers and investors, breakeven rates are an important measure of inflation expectations. Simply put, the breakeven rate is the difference between the yield of a nominal bond and an inflation-linked bond of the same maturity.
8 lessons from 12 remarkable months
This Friday is the anniversary of the S&P 500’s peak on February 19. Within two weeks, the US benchmark had corrected by 10pc. Within four weeks it was in bear market territory, down more than 20pc. We didn’t know it at the time, but five weeks after the peak, it was all over. Since March 23 last year, US shares have risen 75pc. The past year has provided more than its fair share of lessons. Here are eight things I’ve taken from a remarkable 12 months in the markets.
Beating them at their own GameStop
The GameStop stand-off last week turned the market on its head. Was this the exhilarating take-down of wicked Wall Street elite a late-cycle portent of the bursting of a bubble? But the far more interesting question is what it means for the rest of us.
China, the West and the rest
With little fanfare, China is firing on all cylinders to vaccinate tens of millions of people against Covid, even as domestic spread of the virus appears mild. In the West, Israel stands out as the fastest mover, thanks to strong military-backed logistics power, while other countries are accelerating their efforts.
Riding it out
The risk of a correction has risen recently, and it would not be at all surprising if a combination of apparently positive developments - Brexit in the bag, Biden in the White House and jabs in millions of arms, provides the trigger for a setback. So should investors sit tight and ride it out, or do you risk trying to time the market?
Inauguration inflation
The unknown unknowns
November surge
Outlook 2021: Seizing the new reality
