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Reporting season? It seems the winners were global leaders leveraged to grow and win market share, healthcare champions and the software kings who despite some earlier valuation concerns have proved that fundamental strength remains and long term winners keep on winning!

As I travelled around Australia in July, meeting with clients, the excitement of high returns in the market had been tempered with caution about what happens next. Australian housing price growth was turning negative and uncertainty about the global stock market was a lot more front of mind. Only a few months later, caution has continued yet the market has climbed higher still.

For those of us grey-haired investors like myself who have lived through market and economic cycles before there are many parallels with today; construction booms, debt fuelled asset inflation, tight labour markets and wage inflation concerns, high and rising asset prices, not to mention a sense of synchronised global growth momentum that keeps on going “stronger for longer”. Bond market signals indicate the cost and prevalence of financial risk in the system are rising. Complacency is slowing as the areas for caution grow:

1. Valuation of growth and quality stocks are at very high levels, especially in technology 
2. Rising cost of debt, inflation pressures, tight labour markets and risk spreads widening 
3. Emerging markets weakness and perhaps slowing South Korean exports are a lead indicator
4. Financial system liquidity seems to be slowing
5. A growing list of countries are facing currency and deficit issues

There is, however, no universal agreement regarding the catalyst for market trends to change. The US and Asian tech sectors experienced some valuation wobbles in the last few months however, this doesn’t seem to be a widespread signalling issue for the sector or for the world with the US GDP growth remaining very strong at 4.1% in the second quarter. Employment growth is strong and inflation remains very low.

Only rising debt costs, lower liquidity or a confidence shock seem likely to put the brakes on the current fairy tale bull market.

Figures published by the Institute of International Finance in Q1 put global debt at US$247 trillion (318% of GDP) 1. Domestically, Australia is carrying debt of AUD$6.9 trillion which is 396% of our GDP.2 If interest rates rise by as little as 1% on global debt, $2.5 trillion more interest will need to be paid, or 3.3% of global GDP. So can the world afford higher interest rates? Only time will tell…

Viability and Sustainability (returns on capital, pricing power, cash generation, debt levels) should be heavily considered in the context of higher debt and lower liquidity conditions.

For investors (which I am one) of the Fidelity Future Leaders fund, my current focus is clear:
1. Growth/Quality at a reasonable price
2. Valuation sensitivity across the portfolio is critical
3. Liquidity, earnings stability, debt levels will allow companies to survive economic turbulence
4. Be very careful of momentum and risk assets 
5. Sustainable cash yields and sustainable earnings are the long-term drivers of a business

In 2018 the portfolio has benefited from the expected success of quality global structural winners in technology and healthcare that are unique leaders in their fields. Long duration, global cyclical momentum stocks such as WorleyParsons have also performed as have companies in the transition and value phase such as Southern Cross Media.

Structurally, the portfolio is balanced and positioned to perform as the bull market continues, with strategic fundamental adjustments away from momentum and towards value to provide downside protection.

 

1 Institute of International Finance, July 2018 (iif.com).
2 Australiadebtclock.com.au, September 2018.

This document is issued by FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009, AFSL No. 409340 (“Fidelity Australia”).  Fidelity Australia is a member of the FIL Limited group of companies commonly known as Fidelity International.

Investments in overseas markets can be affected by currency exchange and this may affect the value of your investment. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than investments in developed markets.

This document is intended for use by advisers and wholesale investors. Retail investors should not rely on any information in this document without first seeking advice from their financial adviser. This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider these matters before acting on the information.  You should also consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statements (“PDS”) for any Fidelity Australia product mentioned in this document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. The PDS can be obtained by contacting Fidelity Australia on 1800 119 270 or by downloading it from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. This document may include general commentary on market activity, sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions that should not be taken as investment advice. Information stated herein about specific securities is subject to change. Any reference to specific securities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold these securities. While the information contained in this document has been prepared with reasonable care, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. This document is intended as general information only. The document may not be reproduced or transmitted without prior written permission of Fidelity Australia. The issuer of Fidelity’s managed investment schemes is FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009. Reference to ($) are in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise. 

© 2018 FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited. Fidelity, Fidelity International and the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited.

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