This article first appeared in Livewire on 17 July 2026
Predictions are always a fraught proposition. No matter the topic, even the best in the business don’t knock it out of the park every time.
When it comes to picking stocks, sometimes you get onto a winner early and look like a genius and other times the exact opposite happens. Either way, there should be some reflection.
Are you actually a genius or did the best case scenario play out? Was your investment thesis wrong or did some kind of unforeseen circumstance derail an otherwise sound pick? It can be hard to tell.
At the end of last year, Livewire got 10 fund managers to share their top growth picks for 2026. Among those picks there was a clear standout with Armina Rosenberg’s choice of South Korean memory chip manufacturer SK Hynix, which even after the recent “chipwreck” is still up almost 200% for the year.
It wasn’t the only winner, but some of the other stocks have struggled over the last six months.
However, instead of shying away from these picks, in this wire four of those fund managers examine what happened, if there was a flaw in their methodology, and whether they would still buy the stock.
After all, a loss is only a failure if you don’t learn anything.
#1 - HUB24 (ASX: HUB)
HUB24's year-to-date performance. Source: TradingView.
The top pick for Fidelity International’s James Abela was financial services software company HUB24. It seemed like such a safe bet that he wasn’t even the only fund manager who chose the company.
“We believe the stickiness of that client base is quite strong, the stock has delivered growth and it's also a technology leader. All these things combined reinforce my view that HUB24 is a business that I am very keen to hold,” Abela said at the time.
HUB24 finished 2025 at $96.25 and is down 14.02% as of 15 July, though a recent rally has helped that figure after hitting a 14-month low less than a month ago.
So, why didn’t HUB24 perform the way Abela had projected?
“Our investment thesis centred on HUB24's ability to deliver sustained structural earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, and that aspect of the thesis remains intact,” he says.
“However, broader market concerns around the so-called ‘SaaSpocalypse’ and the potential disruption posed by artificial intelligence weighed heavily on valuation multiples across the software and fintech sectors.”
Despite this, Abela argues that the underlying industry backdrop has remained largely supportive, with financial advisers increasing their usage of the platform and HUB24 clearing $100 billion in funds under administration.
“The business continues to be recognised as a market leader, with strong adviser satisfaction and best-in-class decision-support capabilities underpinning its competitive positioning,” he says.
“While HUB24 was not involved in either the Shield or First Guardian fraud cases, these events increased scrutiny across the broader financial services industry. The possibility of class actions and compensation claims relating to investor losses on other platforms contributed to heightened sector-wide concern, despite HUB24's strong reputation and lack of direct involvement.”
Fidelity has implemented a “modest net reduction in the position”, largely due to uncertainty around AI potentially impacting software valuations, but Abela says HUB24 is still the firm’s preferred exposure to financial services tech platforms.
“Australia's adviser market continues to consolidate and modernise, with independent platforms gaining share as wealth management moves beyond the historical dominance of the major banks, AMP and Macquarie. HUB24 is well positioned to benefit from these trends,” he says.
Calling the strategic investment case “compelling”, Abela also cautions that the “pace of innovation in software product development and AI-driven workflows makes it difficult to accurately assess how competitive dynamics may evolve, how HUB24 will respond, and what the long-term implications could be for pricing power and profitability”.
As things stand, the investment case for HUB24 is on hold until its August results announcement, with the portfolio manager unsurprisingly keen to hear the management team’s commentary on the impact of AI.
“The upcoming result should provide greater clarity on whether HUB24 can continue to balance growth, innovation and profitability in this evolving environment.”
Takeaways
The key lesson from HUB24’s stock price slide: “Even high-quality businesses can experience significant multiple compression when investors begin to question future capital requirements, competitive intensity or the durability of industry leadership.”
You can read the rest of the article on Livewire's website
